Fall

September 6, 2018 - Published by IAG Wealth Partners

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Summer is over. The kids are back at school. If you look carefully a few trees are not quite as green as the used to be. Yes, fall is underway.

According to dictionary.com, the season between summer and winter was initially called harvest. However, with the population shift from field to city in the 1600s the season name transitioned to “fall of the leaf” and then, simply, fall.

By coincidence the first stock exchange in the world – the Amsterdam Stock Exchange – was created in 1602. And the stock market has been falling in the fall ever since (or at least it feels like that).

We are now entering one of the least favorable times of the year for stock prices. September has historically proved challenging as it has offered the lowest return of any month of the year.

Last year the S&P 500 Index rose in September, but in 2016 it was flat and in 2015 and 2014 it fell. Will September 2018 be more like the end of August with new record highs or will it succumb to the history of so many Septembers past?

When we know the answer to that question it will be October. Over the past 20 years October has been the most volatile month of the year. Unlike returns which can be judged by their distance and direction from zero, volatility can be both positive and negative.

Traders love upward volatility’s impact on the markets, but are filled with regret when downward volatility strikes. October has had plenty of both.

So how are you feeling about fall?

At IAG our investment process if season ambivalent. Because we never know at the beginning of a month how a month will end, we don’t make monthly changes based on seasonal quirks. Instead, we focus on the personal and financial goals our clients are working toward and design a risk-appropriate long-term portfolio that fits into their plan.

So enjoy the cooler nights and vibrant colors that come with fall, but be aware there is a higher likelihood in the next two months than any other months of the year that you may not enjoy what fall does to your investment portfolio.

 

Quote of the week:

 

Mark Twain: “October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. Others are November, December, January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, and September.”


Securities offered through LPL Financial. Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through IAG Wealth Partners, LLC, (IAG) a registered investment advisor and separate entity from LPL Financial.

The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 U.S. large cap stocks. One cannot invest directly in an index.

Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. In fact, the opposite can be true. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or development referred to in this material.

Any opinions are those of IAG and not necessarily those of LPL Financial. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein.

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